Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Economic Consequences

To understand the human consequences of the economic slowdown, you have to look beyond the widespread layoffs. Consider the millions of people who have managed to keep their jobs yet have seen their pay slashed, often drastically. From home-improvement contractors to waiters to salespeople, those who are paid at least in part with commissions, bonuses or tips have been battered by the slowdown. "This may be the first downturn where, because variable pay is so pervasive, it's affecting everyone down to hourly workers," says John Bremen, a director in Watson Wyatt's compensation consulting practice. With their pay diminished, such workers typically reduce their spending. And when they do, the effect tends to ripple through layers of the economy.

Escalating gas prices are prodding businesses and local governments to take a drastic step to curb costs: Many are cutting back to four-day workweeks, with employees generally working four 10-hour days instead of five eight-hour days. In most cases, they're acting because of pressure from employees who want shorter workweeks, which generally mean lower driving costs. Companies and local government offices are shortening individual workweeks with staggered schedules, but in most cases, staying open five days. It's a sign of how deeply gas prices are cutting into employees' pay and businesses' bottom lines. The last time four-day workweeks came into vogue was during the gas run-up in the 1970s. In Alabama, the city of Birmingham decided to adopt a four-day week for employees starting July 1. On June 2, road crews in Walworth County in Wisconsin will start working four-day shifts.

Just when things were starting to look healthier for the domestic auto industry, the rapid acceleration of gas prices has suddenly made the industry seem sick again. Monthly sales are 10% lower than a year ago. But it's not really the sales total that is so troublesome: The automakers have seen sales drop 10% before. It's the speed at which consumers are moving to less-profitable small vehicle lines. Ford CEO Alan Mulally said in an interview on Monday that over the last six weeks, smaller cars went from 16% to 17% of the overall market to 28% of the market. The U.S. Big Three — General Motors, Ford and Chrysler — have spent decades making big profits on trucks and SUVs. General Motors announced plans Tuesday to shut four truck and SUV plants that employ thousands of workers, saying high gas prices are here to stay - and, with them, consumers' growing preference for more fuel efficient vehicles.

Tax Cut Expiration?

President Bush on Monday campaigned to make his tax cuts permanent, saying that allowing them to expire would be harmful to an already limp economy. The message was perhaps aimed more at voters than lawmakers. The Democratic-led Congress has shown little interest in renewing most of the tax cuts, and Republicans are seeking to use the issue as political leverage in the upcoming presidential campaign. Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton both have called for raising income taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Bush used the five-year anniversary of his signing of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, which lowered rates on capital gains and dividends, to make his case that Congress should extend his first-term tax cuts set to expire in 2010. Edward Lazear, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said not renewing the tax cuts amounts to a tax increase. Raising taxes especially in an economic downturn is ill-advised, he said.

Chronic World Hunger

ROME — Ferried in by helicopters and boats or loaded on the backs of yaks and elephants, massive amounts of food aid have reached millions of homeless or hungry people after disasters in the last few years. But while the world rises to the challenge of saving those survivors from starvation, hundreds of millions go hungry from a catastrophe that has stubbornly lasted for decades: the failure of agriculture in much of Africa and some parts of Asia and Latin America to ensure enough food for their own. World leaders convening in Rome on Tuesday to grapple with skyrocketing food prices will have to make progress on this problem if they want to eradicate chronic hunger, say U.N. experts, nonprofit aid groups and economists.

"What we've seen is we're getting better at emergencies, but getting worse at tackling chronic hunger," said Duncan Green, director of research at Oxfam, a British aid group. "Even in 2006, which was a good food (harvest) year, 850 million people were hungry," said Raj Patel, a political economist who testified earlier this month before Congress about the food crisis. "It's part of a chronic crisis which has recently become acute" because of soaring prices.
  • JJ Commentary: Jesus said that we will always have the poor among us – that is, until He comes to restore all things.

Australia Withdraws from Iraq

SYDNEY, Australia — Australia, a staunch U.S. ally and one of the first countries to commit troops to the Iraq war five years ago, ended combat operations there Sunday, a Defense Department official said. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was swept into office in November largely on the promise that he would bring home the country's 550 combat troops by the middle of 2008. Rudd has said the Iraq deployment has made Australia more of a target for terrorism.

Get Out of Your Car in Tornadoes

It's turning out to be a deadly year for tornadoes, especially for drivers caught in a storm's path. Nationally, the number of people killed by tornadoes while in their vehicles — 14 as of Wednesday — is the highest annual total since 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center. Officials say drivers and their passengers should find a sturdy shelter or even lie flat in a ditch or other low spot, covering their heads with arms, coats or blankets if a tornado is moving in their direction. Overpasses and bridges should also be avoided as overpasses can create a wind-tunnel effect while bridges can collapse.

Burmese Nightmare Continues

BANGKOK (AP) — More than 1 million people still don't have adequate food, water or shelter a month after a devastating cyclone swept through Myanmar, and it's not clear what the military junta is doing to help them, the United Nations said Tuesday. Humanitarian groups say they continue to face hurdles from Myanmar's military government in sending disaster experts and vital equipment into the country. As a result, only a trickle of aid is reaching the storm's estimated 2.4 million survivors, leaving many without even basic relief.

Tithing Down

A recent poll by pollster George Barna shows that only 5% of Americans say they tithe, or give at least 10% of their income to religious congregations and charitable groups. According to other studies on church giving, congregants give an average of 2.58% of their income to their churches. That's down from 3.11% of their income in 1968, according to studies published by Empty Tomb, a ministry that studies church finances. "Tithing is in decline," said the Rev. William Hull, a research professor at Samford University and a Baptist minister. "The older generation was taught to tithe. It's not being taught very much any more."

Decades ago, the church was a focal point of philanthropy. Now parachurch ministries, schools and charitable agencies compete for those dollars, he said. "The church has been losing market share," said Sylvia Ronsvalle, executive vice president of Empty Tomb. "That concerns us. There could be a crisis in the very heart of the church." Many major mainline denominations are suffering budget shortfalls. "The churches don't get enough money to send on to headquarters," Hull said.

Ø JJ Commentary: Maybe tithing would increase if the churches spent less on fancy buildings and were more Biblically sound.